Which one will be a All-Star?
Brandon Ingram vs Marquese Chriss
To me, an All-Star is someone who can consistently score 20 points a game. We will use standard deviation to help us come to a conclusion.
What is standard deviation? It is a statistical tool that measures how far from the average the data points fall. (the smaller the number, the more consistent the player is.) We are looking at two things, how the deviation changes and how the average changes from year to year in both points scored and field goal percentage. We believe those to be the two most compelling statistics on determining a break out star.
Brandon Ingram in my opinion, an All-Star in the making. He had a somewhat disappointing rookie season but with the drastic improvements he has made in his second NBA campaign, many others including myself, have high hopes for his future. In 2016-17, his rookie season he had a average of just 9.3 PPG and shot 40.2% from the field, while having a FG % standard deviation of 18.8. For those who don’t know what that means, that means his shooting ranged between 18 percent above 40.2% and 18 percent below. His points scored standard deviation was 5.48. This also means that on his good nights, on the average, he was 5 points under being an All-Star and on his bad nights he was 15 points under being an All-Star. However, this season, Brandon Ingram has been much better in the basic stats, bringing his average from 9.4 PPG to 15.9 with a standard deviation of 6.32. To me,. this means that he is now getting into All-Star range on his good nights, and still averaging higher than the previous season on his bad nights. He is also finding his role on the team – now sometimes becoming his team’s #1 scoring threat. The key marker for me is the change in his field goal percentage. He raised his field goal percentage to 44.9%, with a lower standard deviation of 16.4. Regardless of what his role is on a given night – he is becoming more consistent in doing it.
Marquese Chriss is in his second season. His first season was decent from where he was selected, he was the 8th overall pick. He was traded by his team to the Suns and did decently well with low expectations. He averaged 9.1 PPG with a standard deviation of 5.88. This means that most of his performances 5 points above and below his average. So, in a good game he’d average 14, and in his bad ones, he’d average around 4. His FG standard deviation of 18.52, fairly close to Brandon Ingram. Typically players with a lot of potenial have flashes of greatness in their rookie seasons they just lack consistency. In his second season, Marquese Chriss was hoping to improve upon that average. This season he actually got slightly more consistent with a standard deviation of 4.89 but his shooting percentage standard deviation got worse to 21.99. His average became less and he became more inconsistent. Which means he was actually a better player his rookie season. Marquese Chriss sadly doesn’t seem to be bearing out his potential.